Literal Method – The Prediction Market Core Playbook

A 5-step system applied to every single trade:

• Step 1 — Read Literally No synonyms. No assumptions. Every word is exact. “Inflation” means inflation — not “inflationary,” not “close enough.”
• Step 2 — Source Exactly Which specific document settles the contract? The official FOMC statement — not the press conference. The BLS release — not the analyst summary. Source hierarchy matters.
• Step 3 — Trigger Precisely Map the exact condition that resolves YES. Is 3.0% “above 3.0%”? Inclusive or exclusive? What about revisions? Precision here prevents the most expensive errors.
• Step 4 — Settle Definitively How has this type of market settled before? Who makes the final call? Research historical precedents before entering — not after.
• Step 5 — Execute Systematically Size using fractional Kelly Criterion (6.25% max per trade). Limit orders only. Track every trade. Boring consistency compounds into real returns.

This Is For You If…

• You’ve lost trades you “should have won” and can’t explain exactly why
• You want to understand precisely why every trade wins or loses
• You can commit 5–10 hours a week to research and preparation
• You value boring consistency over exciting longshots
• You’re starting with $500–$5,000 to deploy systematically
• You’ll actually read settlement rules before placing a trade

This Is NOT For You If…

• You want hot tips, signals, or “what to trade right now”
• You’re looking for guaranteed returns or overnight gains
• You won’t track your trades or analyze your losses
• You trade on gut feeling and want to keep it that way

What You’ll Learn In The Prediction Market Core Playbook

• Sections 0 & 1 — Introduction & Your First Trade The $1,200 FOMC story. Who this is for (and who it isn’t). A complete step-by-step walkthrough of your first trade from reading settlement rules to placing a limit order.
• Section 2 — The Complete Literal Method Framework Deep-dive into all 5 steps with worked examples, checklists for each step, and a full trade walkthrough applying the entire framework in sequence.
• Section 3 — Why This Works: The Research The academic and empirical case for settlement-first trading. How the maker-taker dynamic creates systematic edge for informed traders. Why this edge is durable.
• Section 4 — Real Trade Case Studies Three real trades broken down completely: the Trump “China” mention win, the $1,200 FOMC “inflation” loss, and the CPI threshold trade. What I did right, what I did wrong, and exactly what I learned from each.
• Section 5 — Polymarket vs. Kalshi Fees, market selection, settlement mechanics, tax implications, and which platform suits which trading profile. Concrete recommendations by experience level and trading style.
• Section 6 — Bankroll Management How much to start with ($500 minimum, $1,000–$2,000 recommended). The 50/50 withdrawal rule. Drawdown protection rules. The four mistakes that blow accounts.
• Section 7 — Exit Strategies When to hold to settlement vs. exit early. The “thesis broken” rule. Taking profit when edge disappears. Partial exits for advanced traders. A complete exit decision framework.
• Section 8 — 20 Common Mistakes The 10 most expensive mistakes prediction market traders make, plus 10 more. The mistake prevention system. How to run an emotional check-in before every trade.
• Section 9 — Enhanced Quick Start Guide Three paths to choose from: 30-minute essentials, a structured first-5-trades progression, and the full 30-day beginner plan. Pick the entry point that fits your situation.

More courses from the same author: Literal Method